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Trade Optimism, Supply Deals, and Rate Cut Bets Drive Global Market Swings | 28th October 2025

Markets Shift on Optimism Global markets are experiencing notable shifts today as optimism around trade agreements, new supply deals, and expectations of central bank rate cuts fuel volatility across asset classes. Bullion and commodity prices are fluctuating in response to a weaker US Dollar, while major currencies are jolted by diplomatic breakthroughs and evolving central bank policies. Today’s session is defined by cautious optimism and rapid repositioning across global markets. Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD) Current Price and Context Gold bounced off a two-week low as a weaker US Dollar and renewed Fed rate-cut bets helped prices recover. However, optimism regarding US-China trade talks capped further gains, keeping gold below recent highs. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Reduced safe-haven demand as diplomatic optimism returns. US Economic Data: Weak USD after soft data supports gold recovery. FOMC Outcome: Rate cut expectations provide a tailwind for gold. Trade Policy: Improving trade sentiment tempers defensive flows. Monetary Policy: Fed remains dovish, bolstering gold’s broad outlook. Technical Outlook Trend: Rebounding from lows yet unable to sustain strong upward momentum. Resistance: $4,100 Support: $4,050 Forecast: Neutral to mildly bullish if dovish Fed narrative continues. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic but sensitive to trade updates. Catalysts: Progress in US-China discussions and next Fed meeting. Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD) Current Price and Context Silver slipped below $47.00 on early session optimism for a US-China trade deal, with industrial demand and risk appetite leading price moves. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Lower safe-haven demand amid trade progress. US Economic Data: Softer US data tempers further losses. FOMC Outcome: Rate cut hopes keep downside limited. Trade Policy: Improving trade outlook weighs on precious metals. Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed still a support factor. Technical Outlook Trend: Slight downtrend as risk-on dominates. Resistance: $47.40 Support: $46.60 Forecast: Sideways to slightly bearish near-term. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Neutral as bullish and bearish drivers balance. Catalysts: News on trade deal progress. WTI Crude Oil Forecast Current Price and Context WTI declines near $61.00 as OPEC+ signals an intention to lift production in its upcoming meeting, weighing on oil prices despite broader market volatility. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Supply stability reduces geopolitical risk premium. US Economic Data: Slight demand softness reflected in weaker data. FOMC Outcome: Rate cut expectations provide mild support but are outweighed by supply concerns. Trade Policy: Stable, supports broader demand outlook. Monetary Policy: Fed’s easing stance partially cushions downside. Technical Outlook Trend: Bearish amid production news. Resistance: $62.30 Support: $60.50 Forecast: Short-term downside bias persists. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Bearish as supply concerns dominate. Catalysts: OPEC+ official meeting statements. NZD/USD Forecast Current Price and Context NZD/USD climbed to a three-week high near 0.5800, driven by trade optimism and a weaker US Dollar that boosts risk-sensitive currencies. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions support risk-on flows. US Economic Data: Dollar weakness amplifies Kiwi gains. FOMC Outcome: Rate cut bets further boost NZD/USD. Trade Policy: Positive developments favor New Zealand’s export outlook. Monetary Policy: RBNZ expected to hold steady, providing relative currency strength. Technical Outlook Trend: Bullish as momentum strengthens. Resistance: 0.5820 Support: 0.5760 Forecast: Mild upside continuation likely if sentiment holds. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Positive and risk-friendly. Catalysts: Global trade headlines and Fed comments. EUR/JPY Forecast Current Price and Context EUR/JPY weakened toward 177.50 as a new US-Japan deal to secure rare earths supply boosted the Yen, while the Euro remains under pressure following last week’s moves. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: US-Japan deal strengthens yen on supply chain confidence. US Economic Data: Minimal direct impact, but global risk impacts both currencies. FOMC Outcome: Cross-asset effects influence both sides of the pair. Trade Policy: Major new supply agreement is yen-supportive. Monetary Policy: ECB remains cautious, BOJ steady. Technical Outlook Trend: Bearish, with yen outperforming euro. Resistance: 178.70 Support: 177.20 Forecast: Further downside possible if yen remains in favor. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Risk-off, yen-favoring. Catalysts: Follow-through from supply agreement, BOJ/ECB policy updates. Wrap-up In summary, the confluence of trade optimism, supply chain developments, and persistent rate cut expectations is setting the tone for coordinated moves across commodities and currencies. As central banks and policymakers deliver new signals, traders remain vigilant for further headlines that could spark additional volatility and create fresh opportunities. Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!

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Publication date:

2025-10-28 06:53:38 (GMT)

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