Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday, 19 March 18:00

Previous
4.5%
Forecast
4.5%
Actual
4.5%

Next event - Wednesday, 7 May 18:00

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Fed Interest Rate Decision yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 4.5% against a forecast of 4.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
19 March 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
29 January 2025 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
18 December 2024 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%
27 July 2022 18:00
2.5%
2.5%
15 June 2022 18:00
1.5%
1.75%
4 May 2022 18:00
1%
1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-6.9%1.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.2%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change51.653.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change52.749.8
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change5154.3
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-4.7%4.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change220K223K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change18.112.5
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBearish change3.9%3.4%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd yearBearish change3.4%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - CurrentBearish change4.4%3.9%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)3%3%
Industrial Production (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.7%
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.473M1.456M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.35M1.501M
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBearish change5.7-20
Retail Sales (MoM)Bullish change-1.2%0.2%
Retail Sales Control GroupBullish change-1%1%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bullish change-0.6%0.3%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change64.757.9
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.5%3.9%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change222K220K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.6%0%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.7%3.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.3%-0.1%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3.6%3.4%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$-129B$-307B
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.2%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3%2.8%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3.3%3.1%

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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