Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday, 7 May 18:00

Previous
4.5%
Forecast
4.5%
Actual
4.5%

Next event - Wednesday, 18 June 18:00

Previous
4.5%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Fed Interest Rate Decision yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 4.5% against a forecast of 4.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
7 May 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
19 March 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
29 January 2025 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
18 December 2024 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%
27 July 2022 18:00
2.5%
2.5%
15 June 2022 18:00
1.5%
1.75%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change47.346.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change52.250.8
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change6.5%7.3%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change4.4%4.6%
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.481M1.412M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.339M1.361M
Industrial Production (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%0%
Initial Jobless Claims(no change)229K229K
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBearish change-8.1-9.2
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBullish change-26.4-4
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0%-0.5%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.7%2.4%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.4%-0.4%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change4%3.1%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.5%0.1%
Retail Sales Control GroupBearish change0.5%-0.2%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bearish change0.8%0.1%
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.1%0.2%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.4%2.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.2%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Monthly Budget StatementBullish change$-161B$258B
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change241K228K
Nonfarm ProductivityBearish change1.7%-0.8%
Unit Labor CostsBullish change2%5.7%

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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