ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15

Previous
186K
Revised
186K
Forecast
140K
Actual
77K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 2 April 2025 12:15

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ADP Employment Change yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 77K against a forecast of 140K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15
140K
77K
Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15
150K
183K
Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15
140K
122K
Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15
150K
146K
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
288K
132K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
270K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
380K
Thursday 2 June 2022 12:15
300K
128K
Wednesday 4 May 2022 12:15
395K
247K
Wednesday 30 March 2022 12:15
450K
455K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change3.3%0.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change3.7%0.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0.1%0.7%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.9%-0.3%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-6.9%1.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.2%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change51.653.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change52.749.8
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change5154.3
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-4.7%4.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change220K223K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change18.112.5
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4.5%4.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBearish change3.9%3.4%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd yearBearish change3.4%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - CurrentBearish change4.4%3.9%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)3%3%
Industrial Production (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.7%
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.473M1.456M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.35M1.501M
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBearish change5.7-20
Retail Sales (MoM)Bullish change-1.2%0.2%
Retail Sales Control GroupBullish change-1%1%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bullish change-0.6%0.3%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change64.757.9
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.5%3.9%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change222K220K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.6%0%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.7%3.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.3%-0.1%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3.6%3.4%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$-129B$-307B

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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