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Retail Sales (MoM)

The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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Next event - Tomorrow 07:00

1.7%

Forecast

-0.3%

Actual

The typical/expected impact on GBP pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Retail Sales (MoM) is -0.3%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for GBP/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/GBP pairs.

Most recent - Friday, 21 February 07:00

-0.6%

Revised

-0.6%

Forecast

0.3%

Actual

1.7%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for GBP/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/GBP pairs.

+/- 1 hour

Price

Real-money Sentiment

Trading range

The trading range of GBPUSD was 22 pips following the most recent Retail Sales (MoM).

Trading range after each Retail Sales (MoM) event

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Retail Sales (MoM) was 1.7% against a forecast of 0.3%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

21 February 2025 07:00

0.3%

1.7%

17 January 2025 07:00

0.4%

-0.3%

20 December 2024 07:00

0.5%

0.2%

22 November 2024 07:00

-0.3%

-0.7%

18 October 2024 06:00

-0.3%

0.3%

20 September 2024 06:00

0.4%

16 August 2024 06:00

0.5%

19 July 2024 06:00

-0.4%

-1.2%

21 June 2024 06:00

1.5%

2.9%

24 May 2024 06:00

-0.4%

-2.3%

19 April 2024 06:00

0.3%

22 March 2024 07:00

-0.3%

16 February 2024 07:00

1.5%

3.4%

19 January 2024 07:00

-0.5%

-3.2%

22 December 2023 07:00

0.4%

1.3%

17 November 2023 07:00

0.3%

-0.3%

20 October 2023 06:00

-0.1%

-0.9%

22 September 2023 06:00

0.5%

0.4%

18 August 2023 06:00

-0.5%

-1.2%

21 July 2023 06:00

0.2%

0.7%

23 June 2023 06:00

-0.2%

0.3%

26 May 2023 06:00

0.3%

0.5%

21 April 2023 06:00

-0.5%

-0.9%

24 March 2023 07:00

0.2%

1.2%

17 February 2023 07:00

-0.3%

0.5%

20 January 2023 07:00

0.5%

-1%

16 December 2022 07:00

0.3%

-0.4%

18 November 2022 07:00

0.6%

21 October 2022 06:00

-0.5%

-1.4%

16 September 2022 06:00

-0.5%

-1.6%

19 August 2022 06:00

-0.2%

0.3%

22 July 2022 06:00

-0.3%

-0.1%

24 June 2022 06:00

-0.7%

-0.5%

20 May 2022 06:00

-0.2%

1.4%

22 April 2022 06:00

-0.3%

-1.4%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for GBP. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales (MoM) result:

		Previous	Latest
Consumer Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	-0.1%	0.4%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	3%	2.8%
Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	3.7%	3.5%
Retail Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	-0.1%	0.6%
Retail Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	3.6%	3.4%
S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Bullish change	50.5	52
S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	Bearish change	46.9	44.6
S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI	Bullish change	51	53.2
GfK Consumer Confidence	Bullish change	-20	-19
BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut	Bullish change	9	1
BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike	(no change)	0	0
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	(no change)	5.9%	5.9%
Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Bearish change	6.1%	5.8%
Claimant Count Change	Bearish change	2.8K	44.2K
Claimant Count Rate	Bearish change	4.5%	4.7%
Employment Change (3M)	Bullish change	107K	144K
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	(no change)	4.4%	4.4%
Consumer Inflation Expectations	Bullish change	3%	3.4%
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	-0.1%
Industrial Production (MoM)	Bearish change	0.5%	-0.9%
Manufacturing Production (MoM)	Bearish change	0.7%	-1.1%

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Country:	United Kingdom
Currency:	GBP
Source:	Office for National Statistics
Category:	Consumption
Frequency:	Monthly

Related events

	Australia		Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
	China		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (YoY)
	New Zealand		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	United States		Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
	United States		Retail Sales (MoM)
	United States		Retail Sales Control Group
	Australia		Westpac Consumer Confidence
	Australia		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	Canada		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	Canada		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Switzerland		Real Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Germany		Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
	Eurozone		Consumer Confidence
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Indonesia		Consumer Confidence
	Japan		Large Retailer Sales
	Japan		Retail Trade s.a (MoM)
	Japan		Retail Trade (YoY)
	New Zealand		ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
	New Zealand		Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)
	New Zealand		Westpac Consumer Survey
	United Kingdom		BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)
	United Kingdom		GfK Consumer Confidence
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales (YoY)
	United States		Consumer Confidence
	United States		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	United States		UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
	United States		Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)
	United States		Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)
	United States		Personal Spending

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